DraftKings Inc. (DKNG)

Verdict

The verdict, up front

Key debates

The arguments the price is actually having

Catalyst calendar

Dated tests, with thresholds

Drivers

Three settled or testable, one contested

• Volume — SETTLED. Sports Consumer Volume +14.5% YoY in Q2 2026 ($13,140M); monthly unique payers (MUPs) 3.6M, +9.1%. The demand engine works even in a down-revenue quarter.
• Hold — SETTLED (direction). Structural net revenue margin rose 5.6% → 6.4% → 7.1% across FY23–FY25 on parlay mix — product-led, not luck-led. Quarterly prints stay noisy: Q2 2026 printed 6.8% after June’s customer-friendly outcomes cost ≈ $80M of revenue (company figure).
• Per-share conversion — arithmetic, not argument. Buybacks vs SBC and option issuance decides whether OE growth becomes per-share growth. The count either falls or it doesn’t — dated tests Nov 5, 2026 and Feb 2027. So far it hasn’t.
• Predictions legality — CONTESTED. This is the turbo trigger. One legal driver decides whether the reported path or the core path prices the stock: at +6.9% growth the two paths are worth $10.21 vs $19.35 a share. Everything else on this page is refinement; this is the $9.14 question.

The kill attempt

The bear case, argued to win

1. The per-share record is the thesis problem. $773.8M of buybacks at a ~$34.24 average bought a share count that went UP (482.0M → 495.6M weighted, FY24→FY25), because SBC ($323.5M TTM, guided at 6% of revenue against ~$750M of guided FCF) and issuance refill it. The founders sold 9,057,381 shares ≈ $363.0M (Jan 2024–Oct 13, 2026) and bought zero — while Kalish’s prepaid forwards keep settling ($18.7M received in 2023 for the tranche that delivered 864,880 shares Sep 2, 2026). The business compounds; the share, so far, does not.
2. The binary is adverse on today’s record, and the downside is priced in dollars. Preemption — the prong that decides nationwide legality — lost 3–0 in the Sixth and Ninth Circuits. Value the core alone (ex-Predictions OE $577.4M, the $250M/yr Predictions spend stopped) and the stock is worth $11.10 at 0% core growth, $14.17 at +3%, $16.64 at +5% — 14–43% below the $19.31 paid — before any stranded wind-down costs, license jeopardy in licensed states (Massachusetts warned licensed books off prediction markets Nov 13, 2025; Nevada took DKNG’s licenses the same month), or class-action drag (two suits filed Aug 2026, allegations only).
3. The tax ratchet compounds against the moat. Illinois invented the per-wager fee in 2025; Chicago stacked a 10.25% city tax to 52.25%+; MD, NJ and LA raised rates the same year. Robins said it himself on May 3, 2024: “the cost has to get absorbed by the consumer.” Every point of tax is a point of hold the product must re-earn. (No company-stated dollar impact of the Illinois fee exists; the ~$80M figures in circulation are analyst estimates, refused here as fact.)
4. The guide is back-loaded and the guide-setter has a record. H1 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $282.5M; the maintained FY26 guide needs $418–618M in H2. The year-ahead EBITDA guide has missed three straight years (arcs in Management), and the Nov 2023 Investor Day’s ~$1.4B 2026 EBITDA target will miss by roughly half.

Bull case

Answering the kill attempt, point by point

• On the guide (K4): the demand engine underneath it is real — volume +14.5%, MUPs +9.1% — and Q2’s revenue miss was outcomes (≈ −$80M in June alone), not demand. The guide was built conservatively: on Feb 13, 2026 Robins said “missing numbers again is just not acceptable” and sent the draft back twice to be lowered. Robins, Nov 7, 2025: “most bullish I’ve ever felt about the future” — said, to his credit or not, on a guide-cut call.
• On the binary (K2): the Third Circuit went for the platforms (preliminary, Apr 6, 2026), and the CFTC’s Oct 9, 2026 rulemaking strengthens the “these are swaps” prong. More important: the downside is bounded by the core, not by zero — at the core’s own required bar (+6.9%/yr) the core-only scenario returns ≈ $19.31. Conceded: the preemption record today is adverse, and the band (25–40%) says so.
• On per-share conversion (K1): SBC intensity has collapsed from 52.7% of revenue (FY21) to 5.2% (TTM) — the dilution engine is slowing mechanically, and the remaining $1,226.2M authorization equals 12.8% of the count at today’s price, not at $34. Conceded: credit is earned when the count falls, not before.
• On taxes (K3): pass-through is live (Illinois surcharge since Sep 1, 2025) and the first month’s data cut the bear’s way only halfway — wagers fell 15% but handle rose 9%, ticket +28%. The hikes hit every licensed operator; FanDuel pays them too.

Reverse DCF

The reported bar governs; the core bar is the decomposition

Method (house stack): solve the single growth rate that makes a 10-year owner-earnings path, grown at 2% thereafter, worth today’s EV at a 10% required return; terminal value fades to cost-of-capital economics with no exit multiple. OE = FCF − SBC throughout. Full model, inputs and both bridges: reverse_dcf_v3.py / reverse-dcf-v3-2026-10-16.json in the dossier (governing bridge verified against the filed v2 model).

The bridge, both ways (full enumeration in Balance Sheet & Capital Returns). Governing — as filed Jun 30, 2026: debt $1,857.5M, cash $983.9M, net debt $873.6M = 1.75× TTM adjusted EBITDA ($499.2M), EV $10,460.1M. Alternative — pro-forma: the Aug 25, 2026 credit amendment added a $700M Term B due 2033 (8-K acc. 0001104659-26-100812; priced at 99.5, ≈ $696.5M of proceeds) whose proceeds the filing says DKNG “intends to utilize” for opportunistic repurchases of a portion of the 2028 converts plus general corporate purposes. If spent without offsetting the converts — none reported executed as of Oct 16, 2026 — debt is $2,557.5M, net debt $1,573.6M = 3.15× TTM adjusted EBITDA, EV $11,160.1M. The as-filed bridge governs (it is the filed balance sheet); the pro-forma bars print beside it so the assumption is never buried.

Required vs delivered (the base-rate line that travels with the bar): the +14.7% reported bar is 2.4× the most recent delivered reported OE growth of +6.2% ($308.2M FY25 → $327.4M TTM), and OE was negative through FY23 — the delivered OE record is two positive years, FY24 (+$26.2M) and FY25 (+$308.2M), plus the TTM ($327.4M). The price asks for a decade at a rate the company has never sustained for even three years. The core lens’s +6.9% bar sits against a richer history — revenue compounding +47.0%/yr FY21→FY25 — the decomposition is where the argument is winnable.

Normalization sensitivity (the ex-Predictions lens is a normalization, so it prints as a range): the lens adds back management’s guided Predictions drag of $200–300M of adjusted EBITDA (both 2026 calls). At the $200M low end the base is $527.4M and the bar is +8.1%/yr; at the $250M midpoint (the filed lens) $577.4M and +6.9%/yr; at $300M, $627.4M and +5.7%/yr. Two caveats ride with it: an adjusted-EBITDA drag is not an OE drag (the add-back is unverified as cash), and segment revenue stays in the base while the spend comes out.

Buyback-credited bars — CONDITIONAL, credit not earned. If net shrink were demonstrated, required total OE growth falls as follows: governing bridge — reported OE +13.5% / +12.4% / +11.2% at 1% / 2% / 3% net shrink; ex-Predictions +5.8% / +4.7% / +3.7%. Pro-forma bridge — reported +14.4% / +13.2% / +12.1%; ex-Predictions +6.7% / +5.6% / +4.5%. The count rose in FY25 and is flat in 2026, so none of this credit is in the verdict.

Turbo trigger: the Predictions path. Grow both bases at the core bar (+6.9%/yr) and the ex-Predictions path is worth $19.35/share while the reported path is worth $10.21 — the spend drag is $9.14/share, which is what the market price embeds for Predictions surviving and converting. The margin-path inversion says the same thing in revenue terms: required revenue growth is +5.3%/yr at a 12% mature OE margin, +2.8% at 15%, +0.8% at 18%, −0.4% at 20% (current TTM OE margin 5.3%). Hurdle sensitivity on the governing reported bar: +10.2% at an 8% hurdle, +12.5% at 9%, +14.7% at 10%, +16.7% at 11%, +18.6% at 12%.

What you must believe

Implied $/share at revenue growth (rows) × mature OE margin (columns), governing bridge; bold = at or above the $19.31 price. The desk’s central cell — the filed inversion, revenue +2.8%/yr at a 15% margin — is the +3% × 15% cell, $19.63.

SBC, in full (it stays here, not in the headline): TTM SBC is $323.5M — 5.2% of revenue, down from 52.7% in FY21, but still 49.7% of TTM FCF ($650.9M), which is why the naive-FCF bar (+5.2%) and the OE bar (+14.7%) live in different worlds. Management guides SBC at 6% of revenue against ~$750M of guided FCF (stated on both the May 9, 2025 and Aug 7, 2025 calls); $676.0M of unrecognized SBC cost sits on the balance sheet over a 2.8-year average life. Every bar on this page is struck after charging SBC in full.

Terminal sanity: terminal value is 12.75× year-10 OE on every path by construction; implied terminal EV/EBIT is not meaningful on the reported lens (TTM GAAP EBIT is −$182.4M) and is stated as n/m rather than forced.

What’s growing

The series is the evidence

$ millions except shares. *FY24/FY25 shares are weighted basic (10-K); the TTM figure is the period-end cover count (Q2 10-Q) — different measures, labeled as such. Same-window delivery: revenue +47.0%/yr FY21→FY25; OE swung from −$1,118.7M (FY21) to +$308.2M (FY25), +$327.4M TTM (a sign change — no CAGR printable). The compounding is real; the per-share conversion is the open question.

Latest quarter (Q2 2026) vs the guide’s needs

Management

Graded on behavior, in Fisher’s question order — C+

Sales & product engine — answered. Volume +14.5% and MUPs +9.1% in a quarter where revenue fell: the machine acquires and retains.

Innovation productivity — answered. Parlay mix drove structural hold 5.6% → 7.1% in two years; Predictions went from announcement to live (Dec 2025) with a vertically integrated stack (DKeX exchange, Jun 2026; NFA FCM approval, Jul 2026).

Cost & margin discipline — thin. Promo efficiency is claimed every call; the June outcomes hit (−$80M) and the undisclosed Illinois fee impact keep it thin.

Long-range outlook vs quarterly pressure — answered, adversely. Two investor days: Nov 14, 2023’s ~$1.4B 2026 EBITDA target will miss by ~half (the revenue leg hit a year early); Mar 2, 2026’s $55–80B 2030 industry frame and ≥30% long-term margin are not yet testable against a TTM consolidated margin of 8.0%.

Access — thin on the decisive item. Calls are forthcoming on the core; on Predictions — the item that prices the stock — revenue, take and overlap are all withheld.

Bench depth — thin: no evidence of a second operator was pulled for this edition; flagged, not filled.

Integrity — the capstone gate, and it caps the grade. A CEO who sends his own guide back twice to be lowered (Feb 13, 2026) earns candor credit; a founder group that has sold $363.0M, bought $0, and keeps settling prepaid forwards does not earn alignment credit. Both are true; the grade holds both.

Scorecard — behavior, not statements

Guidance record (adjusted EBITDA, $M)

Form 4 record (Tier 1; sweep extended to Oct 16, 2026 — EDGAR re-pull today confirms the latest filing is the Oct 2, 2026 Form 4): no open-market buys and no open-market sales by Robins, Liberman, Kalish or Ellingson since Sep 1, 2026 — including through the $18.505 low on Oct 14. Non-market items only: Sep 1 RSU vests (tax withholding at $23.44); Robins’ Sep 3 gift of 12,000 shares and Sep 11 GRAT transfer (696,850 shares + 800,000 options, no purchase/sale); Kalish’s Aug 12 exercise of 383,455 options at $4.70 and Sep 2 delivery of 864,880 shares settling his Sep 2023 prepaid forward (a real disposition of shares he was paid $18,718,918 for in 2023 — settlement, not a new sale); director Moore’s Aug 19 sale of 10,759 shares at $24.05 under her May 2026 10b5-1. Kalish’s total encumbrance: 4,201,574 pledged shares (Mar 2026 proxy) plus 1,912,236 shares under a new May 15, 2026 prepaid forward (delivery May 18, 2029) = 6,113,810 shares. Robins pledges a further 3,153,552 and controls 88.3% of the vote through Class B.

Moat & durability

Fisher’s skeleton, applied to the moat

• Industry edge & scale — answered. Top-two scale in US OSB/iGaming, licenses across most legal states, a database of 3.6M monthly payers. Scale buys media efficiency and product velocity sub-scale rivals cannot match.
• Runway — answered. Two runways: state-by-state legalization (slow) and Predictions’ federal route into California/Texas-scale markets (fast, contested). The Mar 2, 2026 Investor Day framed the industry at $55–80B of gross revenue by 2030.
• Distribution — answered. ESPN named DKNG its official sportsbook and odds provider when the ESPN BET brand retired Dec 1, 2025 — distribution the bear case has to price.
• Margin defense — the question under every margin on this page, and it is thin. Hold gains are product-led (parlay mix), but the tax ratchet takes margin from the other side and the defense is pass-through pricing — shifting cost to the consumer, whose wager count in Illinois promptly fell 15%. A moat whose margin defense depends on customers absorbing state taxes is narrower than the hold chart suggests.
• Switching costs — thin. MUP growth (+9.1%) is the observable; no cohort retention data is disclosed. Bettors multi-home; the moat is brand + product + liquidity, not lock-in.
• The contested edge. Predictions’ moat, if it survives, is a regulatory moat — first-mover liquidity on an exchange DKNG now owns (DKeX). If it doesn’t survive, the same effort is a stranded cost. Tracker context (Tier 3): DKNG Predictions printed $734M of weekly volume (Oct 5–11, 2026, PM Pulse/Aldrin via SportsBookReview) against Kalshi’s $18.37B week (Sep 28–Oct 4) — tracker volume counts $1 face value, not handle or revenue; DKNG is a small challenger in its chosen arena.

Balance sheet & capital returns

The bridge, enumerated once

As filed, Jun 30, 2026 (Q2 10-Q): funded debt $1,857.5M = 0% convertible notes due 2028, $1,265.0M principal (conversion price ≈ $94.85; capped calls to $135.50) + Term B due 2032, $592.5M (SOFR + 1.75%, weighted average cost 5.39%). Cash and equivalents $983.9M; net debt $873.6M = 1.75× TTM adjusted EBITDA ($499.2M). Book equity $569.4M. Restricted cash $8.6M; user-reserved cash $395.0M against user liabilities $840.3M (segregated player funds, not netted). No dividend, ever.

Pro-forma (the alternative bridge, printed because the assumption matters): the Aug 25, 2026 amendment (8-K, acc. 0001104659-26-100812) added a $700M Term B due 2033 at SOFR + 2.00%, priced at 99.5 (≈ $696.5M of proceeds), and replaced the $500M revolver due 2029 with a $750M revolver due 2031 (undrawn at last report). The filing earmarks proceeds for opportunistic repurchases of a portion of the 2028 converts and general corporate purposes. Until a repurchase is reported, the honest pro-forma is debt $2,557.5M, cash unchanged, net debt $1,573.6M = 3.15× TTM adjusted EBITDA, EV $11,160.1M — the bridge the Downside Checklist grades. The Nov 5 10-Q is the first document that can retire this assumption either way.

Capital returns: cumulative buybacks $773.8M at a ~$34.24 average through Jun 30, 2026; $1,226.2M of authorization remains (12.8% of the Class A count at $19.31). The program’s record in one line: it has spent three-quarters of a billion dollars and the share count is higher than when it started, because SBC and issuance refill it. Auditor rotation: BDO → Deloitte for FY2027 (8-K Sep 25, 2026, no disagreements).

Legal & the Predictions binary

Priced, with the odds stated

The map is split, and the split is the risk. Third Circuit (Apr 6, 2026, preliminary): sports event contracts are likely “swaps,” federal preemption likely — platforms win. Ninth Circuit (Aug 28, 2026, Nevada; Sep 16, 2026, tribal IGRA claims): against preemption. Sixth Circuit (Sep 25, 2026, OH/TN): against preemption — and the panel also held the contracts are not swaps. The swaps prong thus also lost in the only full merits panel to reach it. New Jersey’s Supreme Court petition (Flaherty v. KalshiEX, No. 26-299, filed Sep 2, 2026) drew an amicus wave against the platforms (Oct 6–9, 2026 filings): 39 state AGs + DC, 145 tribal entities, the NFL, the American Gaming Association; Kalshi’s response is due Nov 9, 2026; review not granted as of Oct 16, 2026 (docket re-checked Oct 16: nothing since Oct 9). The CFTC moved Oct 9, 2026: a proposed rule (RIN 3038-AF82) defining “swap” to include sports event contracts, and an interim final rule (RIN 3038-AF81) excluding house-banked casino-style products. That strengthens the swap prong; it does not decide preemption, the prong the Sixth and Ninth Circuits ruled on. DKNG’s own Q2 10-Q Legal Proceedings carries two prediction-market class actions — D. Mass. (1:26-cv-13525, filed Aug 3, 2026) and C.D. Cal. (8:26-cv-02199, filed Aug 13, 2026) — allegations only, no rulings.

Probability bands (desk judgment, stated with their basis — rough bands, not legal advice, not analyst estimates)

• Cert granted in No. 26-299 by ~the end of the October 2026 term: 35–55%. For: a clean three-way circuit split, a 39-AG amicus wave urging review, and multiple related petitions in the pipeline (Robinhood/Crypto.com, Nevada). Against: the rulings below are preliminary-injunction stage, and the CFTC’s Oct 9 rulemaking may let the Court wait.
• Ultimate nationwide platform win (swaps + preemption) by end-2028: 25–40%. The preemption prong has lost 3–0 in both circuits to rule on it in full; a tracker tally counts 18 of 22 federal decisions against preemption (tracker commentary, labeled). The swap prong is strengthening federally; preemption is where cases go to die.

What the binary is worth — core-only scenario (labeled scenario math, built from this page’s ex-Predictions lens): value the core alone — base OE $577.4M, the ~$250M/yr Predictions spend stopped, governing net debt $873.6M — and Predictions contributes zero:

Read: at the core’s own required bar, the core alone carries the price — the $19.31 buyer is paying ≈ nothing for Predictions if the core compounds at +6.9% and the spend stops cleanly. Every point of core growth below that bar is paid for by the binary. Excluded from the grid: wind-down costs, the value of Predictions’ 600K+ acquired customers if the product dies, and license jeopardy in licensed states — the first two cut opposite ways, the third only one way.

Charts · Qualtrim

Charts

Pabrai Downside Checklist

The veto gate

No flag is waived. Two (leverage, binary) are unaddressed by any evidence in hand and therefore sit in the verdict box, per the standard.

Checkpoints

Numeric, set Oct 16, 2026, before the prints

Nov 5, 2026 — Q3 2026 print

1. Q3 adjusted EBITDA — pass ≥ $209M (even-split pace of the $418–618M H2 requirement) / fail < $150M.
2. Share count — pass ≤ 495.0M / fail ≥ 496.5M (no fall from 496.454M).
3. Q3 buyback dollars — pass ≥ $75M / fail < $25M (Q2 pace was $55.6M).
4. SBC as % of revenue — pass ≤ 6.0% (management’s own guide) / fail > 6.5%.
5. Predictions revenue breakout — disclosed = pass; still bundled in “Sports” = fail (binary observable).
6. Post-refi balances — converts repurchased (any amount) and/or revolver drawn: report actuals (retires or confirms the pro-forma bridge).

Feb 2027 — Q4 / FY26 print

7. FY26 adjusted EBITDA vs the $700–900M guide — pass ≥ $700M / fail < $700M.
8. Year-end share count — pass < 490M (net shrink ≥ 1.3%: the buyback credit is earned) / fail ≥ 496.5M.

Corrections

Corrections to the prior edition (dated)

• Oct 16, 2026 (post-audit fix pass) — the presented FY22–FY25 series was wrong and is corrected from the 10-Ks. Quality Audit v3 (finding D3-01) caught the series block carrying a superseded series; every cell below is re-tied to the filed 10-Ks (FY2025 10-K for FY23–FY25; EDGAR company facts for FY22). Adjusted EBITDA: FY23 +151.7 → −151.0 (the printed figure was sign-flipped); FY25 508.5 → 620.0. FCF (OCF − capex): FY22 −754.8 → −657.9; FY23 +451.5 → −22.7; FY24 +631.4 → +407.6; FY25 +868.0 → +647.5 — as printed, FCF impossibly exceeded filed operating cash flow itself in three straight years. SBC: FY22 695.3 → 578.8; FY23 504.6 → 398.5; FY24 560.4 → 381.4; FY25 540.6 → 339.3 (overstated $106–201M/yr). Owner earnings (FCF − SBC): FY22 −1,450.1 → −1,236.7; FY23 −53.1 → −421.2; FY24 +308.2 → +26.2; FY25 +327.4 → +308.2 (the old FY25 cell was the TTM figure). OE margin: FY23 −1.4% → −11.5%; FY24 +6.5% → +0.5%; FY25 +5.4% → +5.1%. GAAP net income: FY23 −802.8 → −802.1; FY25 +59.7 → +3.7. Adjusted EBITDA FY24 +181.0 → +181.3; revenue FY22/FY23/FY24 restated by $0.1–0.2M to the filed 2,240.5 / 3,665.4 / 4,767.7. The guidance scoreboard’s FY25 verdict was inverted and is corrected: FY25 delivered 620.0, above the final $450–550M guide (guide arc: $900M–$1B Feb → $800–900M May → maintained Aug → $450–550M Nov) — not “508.5, below every version.” It still missed the initial guide by ~a third; the FY23 row is likewise corrected (delivered −151.0, below the −95 to −115 final guide). The base-rate line is corrected with it: delivered OE was negative through FY23, first positive in FY24 (+$26.2M); the +6.2% delivered rate is FY25 ($308.2M) → TTM ($327.4M), and the printed “+38.5%” tied to no filing pair and is withdrawn. The bars did not move: the governing TTM bases (reported OE $327.4M; ex-Predictions $577.4M) tie to the filings and were re-verified in this pass — every implied bar, CAP, credited bar and checkpoint threshold on this page is unchanged.
• Oct 16, 2026 — The “$11B annualized Predictions volume” figure is Robins’ own Aug 7, 2026 prepared remark (Tier 2), not third-party tracker context as the prior edition’s table labeled it. The actual tracker figure — DKNG Predictions at $734M weekly volume — now appears, labeled, in Moat.
• Oct 16, 2026 — Kalish’s encumbrance is now stated in full: 4,201,574 pledged shares plus 1,912,236 shares under the May 15, 2026 prepaid forward = 6,113,810 shares; and 496.454M is the period-end Class A cover count, not weighted basic shares — now labeled as such.
• Oct 16, 2026 — The prior edition’s headline framing — the ex-Predictions bar “historically cleared with room” — is retired. On the governing reported lens the bar is +14.7%/yr against +6.2% delivered last year; the ex-Predictions lens is now presented as the labeled decomposition it is, normalization range beside it.
• Oct 16, 2026 — The EV bridge now prints both ways; the prior edition bridged on the as-filed balance sheet only and carried the $700M Term B due 2033 in a note.
• Oct 16, 2026 — A disclaimer footer has been added; the prior edition carried none.

Gaps & completeness

Stated plainly

Stated plainly: (1) Predictions’ revenue, take rate, market-making P&L and customer overlap are undisclosed — the decisive segment cannot be verified, only bounded (core-only grid, Legal). (2) Post-refi balances (converts repurchased? revolver drawn?) do not exist until the Nov 5 10-Q. (3) No company-stated dollar impact of the Illinois per-wager fee exists; analyst figures (~$79–80M, inconsistently attributed) are refused as fact. (4) Jackpocket/GNOG standalone returns are unverifiable — the 10-K states segment disclosure is impracticable. (5) Michigan’s per-wager proposal final disposition and the Chicago tax suit’s outcome post-Mar 2026 are unconfirmed. (6) Management’s ~1% overlap and 80–90% professional-volume figures are assertions, flagged wherever used. (7) Q3 2026 results do not exist until Nov 5. Completeness: every material figure in the v3 dossier (report-v3v4-2026-10-16.md) appears in the section named in the dossier’s completeness note (completeness-note-v3-2026-10-16.md), which also carries the computed-but-unpublished register and the SWOT-migration attestation — all 22 internal/external factors from the prior edition carried to their mapped homes (verdict box, drivers, Fisher skeletons, Key Debates, Downside Checklist); none cut. Twelve quarters of earnings calls (Q3 2023–Q2 2026) were read in full and are incorporated — quotes dated throughout; there is no transcript exception for this name. The management grade is re-verified, not inherited: Form 4 sweep extended to Oct 16, 2026, latest proxy (DEF 14A, Mar 26, 2026) re-read, buyback/count re-derived, calls since the grade date checked.

Sources

Where this comes from

SEC EDGAR CIK 0001883685: FY2025 10-K (Feb 13, 2026, acc. 0001883685-26-000013); Q2 2026 10-Q (Aug 7, 2026, acc. 0001883685-26-000029) incl. Item 5 (Kalish May 2026 forward); Q2 earnings release 8-K Ex 99.1 (Aug 6, 2026); credit-amendment 8-K (Aug 25, 2026, acc. 0001104659-26-100812); auditor-change 8-K (Sep 25, 2026, acc. 0001883685-26-000034); DEF 14A (Mar 26, 2026, acc. 0001104659-26-035176); Form 4 XMLs (aggregation Jan 2024–Oct 13, 2026 + refresh sweep Sep 1–Oct 16, 2026; submissions index re-pulled Oct 16 — latest filing Oct 2, 2026); EDGAR company facts (FY21–FY23 series). Transcripts: 12 quarters, Motley Fool ×5 / MarketBeat ×7 full text, via the desk transcript library. Legal: Supreme Court docket No. 26-299 (re-checked Oct 16, 2026); circuit rulings and CFTC Oct 9, 2026 releases (RIN 3038-AF81 / AF82). Price: $19.31 = Thu Oct 15, 2026 close (Yahoo chart API pull and Finnhub previous-close corroboration, Oct 16, 2026; intraday Oct 16 traded lower — the page is priced on the last completed close). Tracker figures (PM Pulse/Aldrin via SportsBookReview; DeFi Rate) are Tier 3 and labeled wherever used. No analyst estimates in any model input.